Portfolio Analysis with Claude:
- Grover Grafton
- Jun 2
- 9 min read
Over time ones performance is determined by the fundemental characteristics of ones portfolio. Similarly, outperformance is determined by the relative outperformance of those fundementals relative to ones next best option. For me, the next best option is the S&P 500 index, representing a broad low cost bet on America and its multinationals.
To monitor these fundementals I use claude to index, weight, and summarize them relative to the S&P 500 once a year. This keeps me honest and ensures portfolio decisions are adding to my portfolios weighted advantage, realised only over the longterm, based on fundemental outperformance.
My Key Fundemental Perfomance Indicators:
1. Revenue Growth (5-Year Average)
Formula: [(Current Year Revenue / Revenue 5 Years Ago)^(1/5) - 1] × 100%
Business Meaning: Measures the compound annual growth rate of sales over 5 years. Indicates market demand, competitive position, and management's ability to expand the business.
2. Payout Ratio
Formula: (Dividends per Share / Earnings per Share) × 100%
Business Meaning: Shows what percentage of profits are paid to shareholders vs. reinvested.
3. Free Cash Flow (FCF) Yield
Formula: (Free Cash Flow / Market Capitalization) × 100%
Business Meaning: Measures actual cash generation relative to company value.
4. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Formula: Net Operating Profit After Tax / (Total Debt + Total Equity)
Business Meaning: Shows how efficiently a company uses investor capital to generate profits.
5. Return on Equity (ROE)
Formula: Net Income / Shareholders' Equity × 100%
Business Meaning: Measures profitability relative to shareholder investment.r.
6. Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
Formula: EBIT / (Total Assets - Current Liabilities) × 100%
Business Meaning: Evaluates efficiency of capital utilization in operations.
7. Net Margin
Formula: (Net Income / Revenue) × 100%
Business Meaning: Shows what percentage of revenue becomes profit after all expenses.
8. Interest Coverage Ratio
Formula: EBIT / Interest Expense
Business Meaning: Measures ability to pay debt obligations. .
9. Cash Conversion Rate
Formula: (Operating Cash Flow / Net Income) × 100%
Business Meaning: Shows how well companies convert accounting profits into actual cash. nt.
What Claude can do for you:
Using Claude, a photo with portfolio weightings and positions, and the above list of metrics I was able to create the below analysis of my portfolios weighted fundementals relative to the S&P 500. Instructions:
Paste the code file below the graphic, a photo with portfolio weightings and positions, and the above list of metrics into clude.
Prompt Claude with: "Using the code please update the portfolio positions and weightings with those in the photo"
Nudge as needed to attain required result.
Ask Caude to Audit the results to ensure accuracy.
Note: I do pay for Claudes Opus Model to analyze all positions, their free model can handle your top 8-10 positions. If your portfolio is has more than 10 positions you can do it piece meal and stitch code together.
Code for Interactive Graphic:
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